UPDATED: The Green Sheet Kentucky Derby 143 Advance Graded Line


For a printable, PDF version of the updated advanced graded line for Kentucky Derby 143 Presented by Yum! Brands (G1) click HERE.

With Wednesday’s post position draw for Kentucky Derby 143 Presented by Yum! Brands (G1) looming in the wings, I have made a few adjustments–primarily weather-related–to  the advance graded line for this year’s Run for the Roses by The Green Sheet.

Current models indicate that the weather in Louisville, Kentucky on Saturday, May 6th will be wet and windy, with a high temperature expected to be a chilly 62 degrees including a 15-20 mile-per-hour WNW wind. A 70 percent chance of morning rain is forecast to taper off into a steady rain in the afternoon hours. With heavy rains and cool temperatures expected in Louisville on both Thursday and Friday as well, this year’s Kentucky Derby 143 Presented by Yum! Brands (G1) has an increasingly dank outlook.

There aren’t a lot of changes to the top and bottom positions of this graded line, though I did bump Tapwrit up top a couple of notches based on his affinity for an “off” racetrack and Hence ascended as well, based on the buzz currently around him at Churchill Downs coupled with the fact that he has three consecutive route races under his belt and won his only prior start in the slop. I’m still skeptical how classy the Sunland Derby (G3) winner is, although that race produced a couple of “live” next-out runners in Conquest Mo Money–2nd, beaten a half length by Classic Empire in the Arkansas Derby (G1)–and Irap, who won the Toyota Blue Grass (G2).

Keep in mind that this is not a morning line, these odds are a reflection of my assessment of each horses’ chances of winning the race and are listed in the order in which I believe they will finish.

Be sure to check the site often, as I will not only update this graded line as the week progresses, but also I will have an advance analysis of Kentucky Derby 143 Presented by Yum! Brands (G1) after the post position draw tomorrow and will be providing FREE full-card analysis and picks for every race at Churchill Downs during Derby Week and beyond.

The best of luck with your handicapping and enjoy this year’s Run for the Roses…JG

Header image: “Walking Ring, Greentree Stable, Saratoga,” oil on panel by Vaughn Flannery (American, 1898 – 1955)

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