Churchill Downs Day 10: Saturday, September 30, 2017

Flurry Racing Stables, LLC’s Mr. Misunderstood is the 7-5 morning line favorite for Saturday’s $100,000 Jefferson Cup Stakes at Churchill Downs. Photo by Hodges Photography/Lou Hodges, Jr.

Churchill Downs Selections by John M. Gaver III: Saturday, September 30, 2017

A robust 11-race program is on the docket on Saturday, September 30 at Churchill Downs highlighted by three black-type affairs–the 41st running of the $100,000 Jefferson Cup, for three-year-olds going nine-furlongs on the Matt Winn Turf Course; the fifth running of the $200,000 Lukas Classic (G3), for three-year-olds and up going a mile and an eighth on the main track; and the 25th running of the $100,000 Ack Ack Stakes (G3), for three-year-olds an upward going a one-turn mile trip on dirt.

Additionally, Saturday’s program has an eight-day, $73,085 carryover in the 20-cent Single 6 Jackpot.

The Green Sheet had a pair of winners on Friday’s 10-race program in Louisville and gave out four trifectas, including a $269 score in the sixth race on the card. On the day, The Sheet had a 96 percent return on investment (ROI*), or a flat-bet profit of $1.92 for each two dollars wagered on its top selections. Nine days into Churchill’s 11-day September stand, The Sheet is hitting at a 30 percent strike rate; its top selections have finished in the money 57 percent of the time.

John M. Gaver III

For the meet to date, The Sheet has a positive 19 percent ROI, or a flat-bet profit of 38 cents for each two dollars wagered on its top selections.

For FREE selections and comments for the Saturday, September 30 program at Churchill Downs, click HERE.

*Return on investment is calculated by placing a hypothetical $2 win wager on all top selections and dividing the net profit by the total amount wagered.


Header image: “Start Of A Steeplechase,” oil on canvas by Sir Alfred J. Munnings (British, 1878-1959)

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