“The Redboard” is a new feature that takes looks back at past race results and analyzes my picks for the Steam tip sheet–the good, the bad, and the ugly. While I may make some excuses, I won’t gloat on past scores after the fact, as the definition “red board” implies. This column is more of a handicapping exercise–to determine track biases, horses that had bad trips, overlays that ran deceptively well, and underlays that had no excuses for running poorly–with the goal of picking profitable winners in the future. So here it goes . . . the Redboard, issue one:
Kentucky Downs, Saturday, September 8, 2018
RACE 1: Maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies. 8 furlongs on GOOD turf. Weather CLOUDY.
Steam had the winner, Unapologetic Me ($10.60), who received a great trip, was punched in at the quarter-pole, and drew away to win convincingly under jockey Tyler Gaffalione. No excuses for 4-5 favorite Perfect Kind, who set early splits of :25 3/5 and :47 4/5 before giving way in the stretch drive.
RACE 2: Maiden special weight for three-year-olds and upward. 6.5 furlongs on GOOD turf.
Top selection Victory Cigar (4-1) stalked the pace to no avail, was bankrupt in the stretch, and finished seventh of 12, beaten nine lengths for all the money. The winner, favored Taxman (5-2), rated in mid-pack under jockey Julien Leparoux, collared front-running Fooch at the eighth-pole, and prevailed by a head in the shadow of the wire. Uber Kirk (4-1) was game racing between horses to be third in a blanket finish. It’s worth noting that Aspen Snow (5-1) ran off in the post-parade and was a non-factor finishing ninth, beaten 9 3/4 lengths.
RACE 3: Allowance for three-year-olds and upward which have never won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter or which have never won two races. 6.5 furlongs on GOOD turf.
Top pick Meantime (9-1) broke well from the one-hole, was allowed to settle, but had no late kick and beat two horses, finishing 10th of 12, nine and three-quarter lengths behind the winner. The victor, Linburgh’s Kitten (6-1), stalked longshot Red Clay Magic (14-1) for a half-mile through splits of :23 3/5 and :47 flat, took over at the three-sixteenths pole and drew away to win by three lengths under Jose Ortiz, Jr.
RACE 4: Maiden special weight for three-year-olds and upward. 6.5 furlongs on GOOD turf.
The top selection East Moon (3-2) had a great trip attending the pace, came under a ride at the five-sixteenths pole, and finished with mild interest to finish fourth, beaten two and a quarter lengths for all the money. The winner, Angel of Mischief (5-2), chased the speedy longshot Valya’s Vengeance (11-1), put that rival away at the eighth-pole and drew clear to win by one and three-quarter lengths. Valya’s Vengeance stayed on to be a game second and 59-1 shot Charlotte Marie ran well to be third. First-time starter Talaalah broke slowly. The early speed held well in this race.
RACE 5: Allowance for three-year-olds and upward which have never won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter or which have never won two races. One and five-sixteenth miles on GOOD turf.
Top pick and “Play of the Day” Sir Sahib (4-1), bet down from a 10-1 morning line installment, stalked the pace in fifth while saving ground, was tipped out at the eighth-pole, finished on the bridle but was nailed in the shadow of the wire to be third in a blanket finish, beaten a half-length for the win. The winner, Campaign (5-2), who annexed his second victory at Kentucky Downs in seven days, rallied from well off the pace, split rivals inside the sixteenth pole, and got up late under jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr. Gray Nile was bothered at the start and Darlingly Bold reared at the start and dwelt.
RACE 6: $500,000 Kentucky Downs Juvenile Turf Sprint Stakes. Two-year-olds. 6.5 furlongs on GOOD turf.
Top selection Chattel (5-2) clipped heels in the stretch drive as a result of Sovereign Impact (35-1) ducking out from a left-handed whip, fell, broke his right shoulder on impact, and was euthanized. Jockey Kendrick Carmouche had surgery for a hairline fracture of his right femur; timeline for a full recovery is four months. The winner, favored Moonlight Romance (8-5), jumped on the bridle from the outset to take the early lead then rated off the free-wheeling Sovereign Impact, collared that foe at the five-sixteenths-pole, drew clear at the quarter-pole, and won by three lengths. Sovereign Impact was disqualified and placed last for interference in the stretch. Life Mission (8-1) overcame an awkward start and ran well to be second.
RACE 7: $500,000 Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf Stakes (G3T). Fillies and mares three-years-old and upward. 8 furlongs on GOOD turf.
No excuse for the top selection I’m Betty G (5-2) , who got away with soft splits of :25 2/5, :48 2/5, and 1:13 flat only to spit the bit at the eighth-pole to finish fifth of eight, beaten five and one half-lengths for the win. The winner, Insta Erma (6-1), was cut loose from a compact field at the quarter-pole, fired like a shot, and got up to beat Valadorna (13-1) by a neck in the final strides under jockey Drayden Van Dyke. Pas de Soucis (Ire), who had an awkward start and was in tight quarters in the stretch drive, gave a good account of herself to be third.
RACE 8: $450,000 Kentucky Downs Ladies Sprint Stakes (G3T). Fillies and mares three-years-old and upward. 6.5 furlongs on GOOD turf.
The top selection, Brielle’s Appeal (6-1), ran like her hair was on fire, setting quick splits of :23 flat, :45 4/5, and 1:09 2/5 before getting late to finish third, beaten a dirty neck and a nose for the win at the hands of Ruby Notion (3-1) and Lull (1-1), respectively.
RACE 9: $500,000 Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint Stakes Presented by Coca-Cola (G3T). Three-years-old and upward. 6.5 furlongs on GOOD turf.
Top pick and the “Value Play” of the day–Done Deal (6-1)–finished sixth, but ran better than the race will look in Daily Racing Form the next time he runs. He bobbled at the start, stalked an honest pace of :23 flat and :46, collared front-running Little Chesney (25-1) at the three-eighths-pole, was set down at the quarter-pole, had the lead at the eighth-pole, and stayed on well to be beaten a length and a half by Proforma (7-1), who benefitted from the quick pace and a dream, rail-skimming trip, to win by a head over favored White Flag (5-2). Vici was a good third at 8-1 stepping up in class. Note that Proforma set a course record of 1:15 3/5 for the six and one half-furlong trip.
RACE 10: $750,000 Calumet Farm Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes (G3T). Three-years-old and upward. 12 furlongs on GOOD turf.
Top selection and 2-1 favorite Oscar Nominated settled off the pace and launched a mild rally from off the pace while very wide at the top of the stretch. The winner, Arklow (6-1) 1), finished stoutly into soft splits to best Bigger Picture (9-2) by a half-length. 13-1 shot Soglio, prominent early, stayed on well to be third, beaten just three-quarters of a length for all the money.
Saturday’s program played fair, though no horse won in gate-to-wire fashion . . . Julien Leparoux, Jose Ortiz, Jr., and Florent Geroux had two wins each . . . Trainer Mike Maker notched a pair of wins on the program and trainer Richard Baltas is a perfect two-for-two at the meet, both wins coming in stakes . . . Julien Leparoux leads Tyler Gaffalione 6-5 in the jockey standings heading into day four, while Mike Maker has a 7-3 lead over Wesley Ward in the trainer’s race.
There is a $10,730 carryover in the $1 Super Hi-5 on the Wednesday, September 12 program.