“The Redboard” takes looks back at past race results and analyzes my picks for the Steam tip sheet–the good, the bad, and the ugly. While I may make some excuses, I won’t gloat on past scores after the fact, as the definition “red board” implies. This column is more of a handicapping exercise–to determine track biases, horses that had bad trips, overlays that ran deceptively well, and underlays that had no excuses for running poorly–with the goal of picking profitable winners in the future. So here it goes . . . the Redboard, issue four:
Keeneland, Sunday, October 14, 2018
The results for Steam‘s top-pick selections were as follows: two wins, a pair of seconds, and one third on the nine-race program for a strike rate of 22 percent and in the money ratio of 56 percent. Return on investment (*ROI) was -47%, or -93 cents for each two dollars wagered on its top picks on the card.
RACE 1: $40,000 claiming for three-year-old fillies. 6.5 furlongs on a SLOPPY (sealed) track. Weather RAINY, 51 degrees.
Favored Went With theWind (9-5) and jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr. clocked the freewheeling pacesetter Bold Esther (5-2), collared that rival at the eighth-pole, and won going away by two and a quarter lengths in the “sloppy” going. Top choice Take Aletter Maria (3-1) was bumped around at the start, made a mild bid from off-the-pace from the three-eighths to the quarter-pole, ran greenly through the stretch while wide to finish fifth, beaten nearly 10 lengths for the win. La Coyota (4-1) came out at the start, and Prayforacure (17-1) hopped at the start.
RACE 2: $73,000 classified allowance for three-year-olds which have never won a sweepstakes on the turf. Originally scheduled for turf, was run at an eight and one-half furlong distance on a SLOPPY (sealed) track.
Top selection Reride (1-2) broke running, set a pressured early pace of :23 4/5, :47 4/5, 1:12 4/5, and 1:37 3/5 before giving way in the final strides to Roaming Union (5-2), who used a perfect stalking trip in this scratch-depleted, off-the-turf affair to his adavantage to score by a half-length on the wire in 1:43 4/5 over a sealed racetrack.
RACE 3: $40,000 claiming for two-year-olds. 6.5 furlongs on a SLOPPY (sealed) track.
Dobby Hasno Master (5-1) set the pace from the one-hole in :23, :46 4/5, and 1:12 3/5, fended off the stalking Lady’s Weekend (13-1), and scored a gate-to-wire victory under jockey Jose Ortiz, Jr. Top pick Deano (5-2) broke well but was taken back off-the-pace and failed to have an impact while four-wide in the lane. Veritas (16-1) hopped at the start, One Bet From Even (24-1) was bumped at the start, and Weiland (4-5) broke in at the start.
RACE 4: $30,000 maiden claiming for two-year-old fillies. 7 furlongs, 184 feet (Beard Course) on a SLOPPY (sealed) track.
Bella Noire (19-1) was the recipient of a dream trip from jockey Rogelio Miranda, who stalked a protracted three-pronged speed duel between top choice Franki D Oro (5-1), Constancia (6-1), and Gator Vindication (5-2) from the four-path, took command at the three-sixteenths pole, and drew away in the stretch to a daylight four and three quarter-length win. Franki D Oro was on the bridle from the get-go, set an opening quarter-mile split of :23 2/5 while being hounded two-deep, then had to steady–apparently to avoid clipping heels–at the seven-sixteenths pole, lost her action, and subsequently lost interest to finish sixth of 12, beaten some 13 lengths and change for all the marbles.
RACE 5: Maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies. Originally scheduled for turf, was run at an eight and one-half furlong distance on a SLOPPY (sealed) track.
Top selection Mo Wheels Up (6-5) stalked Our Bay B Ruth (7-1) in the vanguard throughout fractions of :23 1/5, :47 2/5, and 1:12 4/5, moved to the throat latch of that rival at the five-sixteenths pole, exchanged bumps at the quarter-pole, and prevailed by a determined head under a rousing ride with left-handed urging from jockey Adam Beschizza. The rider of Our Bay B Ruth, Corey Lanerie, lodged a claim of foul against Beschizza aboard Mo Wheels Up for interference at the head of the stretch, but after review by the stewards, the claim was disallowed.
RACE 6: Optional $62,500 claiming, “two other than” allowance for fillies and mares three-years-old and upward. 6.5 furlongs on a SLOPPY (sealed) track.
Honor Way (4-1) parlayed the Tapeta-to-slop angle into a perfect three-wide stalking trip behind top selection Maybe Wicked (7-5) and Go Lady Jay (7-2)–who dueled throughout splits of :22 3/5, :46 flat, and 1:10 1/5–and drew off to a widening eight and one quarter-length win under jockey Tyler Gaffalione. Maybe Wicked threw in the proverbial towel at the quarter-pole and tired to finish fourth of seven, beaten 11 3/4 lengths for all the money.
RACE 7: Maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies. Originally scheduled for turf, was run at an eight and one-half furlong distance on a SLOPPY (sealed) track.
Martian (7-2), who had an experience edge over this field with four prior races under her belt, saved ground from her inside post draw, was tipped out to the two path on the far turn, edged clear of pacesetting Maid in the Mist (9-2) inside the quarter-pole, and drew off smartly to win by four lengths under jockey Corey Lanerie. Top selection Mary Celeste (3-5) broke outwardly at the start, stalked the pace two-deep on the backside, shifted out into the three path at the top of the stretch, but lacked a decisive finishing kick while just missing second by a nose. It was 16 lengths back to fourth-place finisher Shes So Savvy (7-1). All Fact (29-1) was bumped and bothered at the start, and Lady Trish’s Dream (GB), who went off at 14-1, was also bumped around at the break.
RACE 8: $69,000 allowance for three-year-olds and upward that have never won two races. 6 furlongs on a SLOPPY (sealed) track.
Top selection Curate (8-5), a $575,000 son of Bernardini, was ridden to make the lead breaking from the one-hole, set a quick pace of :22 flat, :45 2/5, and :57 1/5, and stayed on to secure a length and a half win under Calvin Borel in a quick six-panel time of 1:09 3/5. Second choice Bobby’s Wicked One (5-2) finished second and Share The Upside (7-2) was third in the seven-horse field.
RACE 9: $50,000 claiming. Three-year-olds and upward that have never won two races. 8.5 furlongs on a SLOPPY (sealed) track.
Omen of Change (9-2) overcame a speed-favoring bias to run down top selection and 2-1 favorite Commandeering in the final strides to annex Sunday’s nightcap, “get out” race. Commandeering had no viable excuse, as he stalked a legitimate pace (:23 flat and :47 flat) in the four path, engaged the leaders at the three-eighths pole, and held well to be beaten a neck in the shadow of the wire. Ego Trip (4-1) broke flat-footed and Rushin Tothecircle (9-1) came out at the start.
Card Takeaways
The first “sloppy” track of the meet favored front-running and stalking types. Horses that were not in the first flight at the quarter-pole struggled to finish with authority over the sealed racetrack . . . Omen of Change (9-2), who won the nightcap, was the only horse on the card to win from well off-the-pace . . . The average $2 win mutuel on Sunday’s program was $11.80 . . . Five-pound “bug boy” Edgar Morales and Jose Ortiz, Jr. are tied with 6 wins apiece heading into the third week of the meet, while trainer Todd Pletcher sits atop the trainer’s standings with six wins . . . There is a $6,776 carryover in the $1 Pick 6 on the Wednesday, October 17 program
*Return on investment (ROI) is calculated by dividing the net profit by the total amount invested.