“The Redboard” takes looks back at past race results and analyzes my picks for the Steam tip sheet–the good, the bad, and the ugly. While I may make some excuses, I won’t gloat on past scores after the fact, as the definition “red board” implies. This column is more of a handicapping exercise–to determine track biases, horses that had bad trips, overlays that ran deceptively well, and underlays that had no excuses for running poorly–with the goal of picking profitable winners in the future. So here it goes . . . the Redboard, issue seven:
Churchill Downs, Saturday, November 3, 2018
The results for Steam‘s top-pick selections were as follows: five wins, zero seconds, and one third on the 12-race program for a 42 percent win clip and in-the-money ratio of 50 percent. Return on investment (ROI*) was +11%, or a profit of 22 cents for each two dollars wagered on its top picks on the card.
RACE 1: $82,000 “a other than” allowance for three-year-olds and upward. 8.5 furlongs on a FAST track. Weather CLEAR, 51 degrees.
Top selection and favored Tiz Mischief (6-5) broke alertly, was taken back and settled off the pace while four wide on the clubhouse turn and backside, shifted to the inside at the five sixteenths-pole under jockey Corey Lanerie, rallied in the stretch while moving off the rail, split rivals in the final sixteenth of a mile, and got up by a neck over Mo’s Mojo (3-1) in the shadow of the wire. Big Gemmy (7-2) was third in the field of six.
RACE 2: $2000,000 Cherokee Run Stakes for three-year-olds. 7 furlongs on a FAST track.
Steam knocked out a chalky early double ($12.60) when its top pick Audible (6-5) made his first start since May 5 a winning one by annexing the second on the card by a comfortable two lengths. The bay son of top sire Into Mischief sat off a six-pronged early speed scramble, was ridden to make up ground while wide at the three eighths-pole, swept to the forefront while five-wide at the quarter-pole, collared eventual third-place finisher Principe Guilherme (43-1) at the eighth-pole, and drew off late under Javier Castellano. Longshot Honorable Treasure (20-1) stayed on well to be second in the field of 10. Dak Attack (7-1) brushed the gate at the start.
RACE 3: $1,000,000 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (G1) for fillies and mares three-years-old and upward. 7 furlongs on a FAST track.
Longshot Shamrock Rose (25-1), a three-year-old daughter of First Dude, took advantage of a rapid early pace carved out by the Southern California invader Selcourt (5-1), who set quick early splits of :21 4/5 and :44 4/5 while being sent from her inside post draw by jockey Tyler Baze, found her best stride inside the eighth-pole, and prevailed in a blanket finish by a head over Chalon (14-1), who was a neck better than Anonymity (31-1), who finished a head to the good of heavily-favored Marley’s Freedom (4-5). Top selection Finley’sluckycharm (7-1) was a far-back (for her) seventh early, ranged into position inside the five sixteenths-pole, but was one-paced down the lane to finish seventh of 14, beaten four and three-quarter lengths for all the marbles.
RACE 4: $1,000,000 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1T) for three-year-olds and upward. 5.5 furlongs on a YIELDING turf course.
Defending champ Stormy Liberal (7-1) broke running but was allowed to settle off the early pace carved out by favored World of Trouble (2-1), who set splits of :22 2/5, :45 4/5, and :57 3/5, collared that rival at the three sixteenths-pole, and prevailed by a hard-fought neck on the line. A game World of Trouble was second, seven and quarter lengths to the good of Disco Partner (4-1). Top pick Will Call (15-1) broke well while wide and finished with interest to be fifth of 14, beaten nine lengths for the win. Hembree (36-1) broke flat-footed.
RACE 5: $1,000,000 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) for three-year-olds and upward. 8 furlongs on a FAST track.
West Coast invader City of Light (5-2) was sent from his inside post out of the chute, set a pressured fast pace of :22 3/5, :45 flat, 1:09 flat, and 1:20 4/5 while being hounded by Bravazo (14-1) and Firenze Fire (5-1), respectively, and drew away impressively to win by two and three-quarter lengths over Seeking the Soul (10-1)–who picked up the bit at the three eighths-pole and finished well–in a very sharp effort. The son of Quality Road covered the flat mile distance in 1:33 4/5, three-fifths of a second off Churchill’s track record and three-year best time for an eight-furlong trip. Top selection and favorite Catalina Cruiser (4-5) lost all kinds of ground veering toward the outside rail at the start, then attended a quick pace while five-wide, and was bankrupt in the stretch drive to finish sixth of nine, beaten 17 and a half lengths for the win.
RACE 6: $2,000,000 Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1T) for fillies and mares three-years-old and upward. 11 furlongs on a GOOD turf course.
The ultra-consistent Sistercharlie (Ire) was reserved early in eighth, sitting off a pedestrian opening quarter-mile in :26 1/5 carved out by her stablemate, A Raving Beauty (Ger), who went off at odds of 11-1, was bumped entering the clubhouse turn, moved into contention at the three-eighths pole, was fanned seven-wide at the quarter-pole, and ran down favored Wild Illusion (GB)–off at odds of 5-2–to prevail by a neck on the wire. A Raving Beauty (Ger) stayed on well to be three-parts of a length back in third. Top pick Fourstar Crook (9-2) broke alertly, was allowed to settle off the pace in mid-pack while saving ground on the rail, jumped on the bridle at the five sixteenths-pole, and stayed on with interest until the eighth-pole before finishing a one-paced seventh, beaten six and three-quarter lengths for the win.
RACE 7: $2,000,000 TwinSpires Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) for three-year-olds and upward. 6 furlongs on a FAST track.
The More Than Ready gelding Roy H (5-2) defended his Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) title with style, as the six-year-old glided to a open length score in the three-quarter mile test. After hitting the gate and bobbling at the start, the bay stalked sizzling opening fractions of :21 1/5 and :44 1/5 set by Promises Fulfilled (9-2) four-deep in the vanguard, collared that rival and longshot Distinctive B (38-1) at the quarter-pole, and drew off in the lane to win by three and a quarter lengths. Whitmore (6-1) ran a great race to be second, as the Ron Moquett-trainee broke slow but rallied from off the pace and demonstrated a nice late turn of foot when jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr. shifted him off the rail at the three sixteenths-pole. Favored Imperial Hint (8-5) ducked out at the start, inched his way into contention at the five eighths-pole, swung five-wide at the quarter-pole, and was a one-paced third, beaten five lengths for all the money. Top pick Limousine Liberal (9-2) drifted out at the start, settled off the pace, was seven-wide at the quarter-pole, and had no late kick, finishing fifth, beaten 11 and one half lengths for the win. Distinctive B was rank at the break.
RACE 8: $2,000,000 Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1T) for three-year-olds and upward. 8 furlongs on a GOOD turf course.
Top selection–the English raider Expert Eye (GB)–delivered at odds of 5-1 under a rousing ride by Frankie Dettori, as the son of Acclamation (GB) settled off a slow pace set by the three-year-old Analyze It (6-1), moved into contention on the far turn while five-wide inside the three eighths-pole, found his best stride inside the sixteenth-pole while being hard-ridden to win by a half-length over Catapult (7-1) on the wire. It was a neck back to Analyze It in the third and a nose back to Divisidero (43-1) in fourth. Favored Oscar Performance (5-2) broke slow, showed little, and finished last in the field of 14, beaten nine and three-quarter lengths for all the money. The three-year-old filly I Can Fly (GB), who went off at 11-1, broke slow and was beaten four and one half lengths for all the money.
RACE 9: $2,000,000 Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) for fillies and mares three-years-old and upward. 9 furlongs on a FAST track.
Favored Monomoy Girl (9-5) stalked an honest early pace (:23 1/5, :47 2/5, and 1:12 flat) carved out by Wonder Gadot (19-1), hooked that foe at the five sixteenths-pole, drew clear in the stretch run, and held the fast closing Wow Cat (Chi), who was sent off at odds of 6-1, at bay to win by a length on the line. The three-year-old Midnight Bisou (5-1) finished with good energy to be third, a head better than Blue Prize (Arg), who went off at odds of 8-1, in fourth. Top selection Abel Tasman (2-1) broke sluggishly, was ridden to establish a forward, stalking position on the rail, was a bit rank on the backside while buried on the fence, began to retreat just before the three-eighths-pole, was angled off the rail a bit in the stretch run by jockey Mike Smith but failed to make headway, finishing last of 11, some 22 lengths off the winner.
RACE 10: $4,000,000 Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1T) for three-years-old and upward. 12 furlongs on a GOOD turf course.
Juddmonte Farms, Ltd.’s and Steam‘s top selection, Enable (GB), who went postward favored at 4-5, became the first horse to win the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Gr. 1) and the $4 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1T), when the daughter of Nathaniel (Ire) stormed down the center of Churchill Downs’ Matt Winn Turf Course and reeled in the ultra-game filly Magical (Ire)–off at odds of 10-1–by three-parts of a length in the shadow of the wire, giving jockey Frankie Dettori his second win on the program. The four-year-old homebred settled in the second flight in the three path in the early stages of the race, eased into contention at the five sixteenths-pole, was fanned out nine-wide at the quarter-pole, and continued her stretch assault in the 12 path. Dyed-in-the-wool closer Sadler’s Joy (37-1) was nine lengths behind Magical (Ire) in third; 53-1 longshot Arklow got up for fourth in the 13-horse field.
RACE 11: $6,000,000 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) for three-years-old and upward. 10 furlongs on a FAST track.
Favored Accelerate (5-2) overcame the 14-hole and gave his trainer, John Sadler, his first Breeders’ Cup win when the chestnut prevailed in the mile and a quarter Classic (G1) by a determined length. The five-year-old broke well and jockey Joel Rosario was able to save a bit of ground in the long run to the first turn to end up in the second flight, three-wide, on the clubhouse turn stalking a rapid pace (:22 3/5, :46 2/5, 1:10 3/5) set by the freewheeling Mendelssohn (13-1). The son of Lookin At Lucky was asked for some run at the half-mile pole, got to the throat latch of Mendelssohn at the quarter-pole, inherited the lead at the three sixteenths-pole, and held off the late running Gunnevera (30-1) to score by a length on the wire. Top pick Thunder Snow (Ire), off at odds of 14-1, was a game third in the full field of 14, as the four-year-old attended a very fast pace on the rail, finished on the bridle, and was beaten just a length and three-quarters for all the money. Both Yoshida (Jpn), who finished well to be fourth, and Mendelssohn, who was only beaten four lengths and change in fifth despite doing all the heavy-lifting on the front-end, ran well in defeat.
RACE 12: $2000,000 Chilukki Stakes for fillies and mares three-years-old and upward. 8 furlongs on a FAST track.
Steam knocked out the nightcap “get out” race on Breeders’ Cup Saturday at Churchill Downs, as the New York invader Divine Miss Grey (4-5) scored by a comfortable length and change under jockey Manny Franco. The daughter of Divine Park clocked the pacesetting Bixby Lou (20-1) though early splits of :23 4/5 and :47 1/5, was let loose at the three eighths-pole, shifted out to the four-path turning for home, opened up a two-length lead in the lane, and held off Berned (5-2), who finished with good energy, by a length and a quarter at the finish. Pricedtoperfection (9-1) was another length and a half back in third in the compact field of five.
The turf course, while listed as “good” from the sixth race onward, actually appeared to be on the “yielding” to “soft” side and favored horses coming from off the pace as opposed to Friday’s Breeders’ Cup turf races, which favored front-running types . . . The main track played fair . . . Jockey Joel Rosario had three Breeders’ Cup wins with Jaywalk, Game Winner, and Accelerate . . . Accelerate ended a 0-for-44 skid in the Breeders’ Cup for trainer John Sadler . . . Trainers Chad Brown—Newspaperofrecord (Ire) and Sistercharlie (Ire)–and Peter Miller—Stormy Liberal and Roy H–had two Breeders’ Cup wins apiece. Miller won his second consecutive Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1T) and Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) with the same horses . . . Juddmonte Farm had a pair of European homebred winners on the grass on Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup card with Expert Eye (GB) in the Mile (G1T) and Enable (GB) in the Turf (G1T) .
*Return on investment (ROI) is calculated by dividing the net profit by the total amount invested.