“The Redboard” takes looks back at past race results and analyzes my picks for the Steam tip sheet–the good, the bad, and the ugly. While I may make some excuses, I won’t gloat on past scores after the fact, as the definition “red board” implies. This column is more of a handicapping exercise–to determine track biases, horses that had bad trips, overlays that ran deceptively well, and underlays that had no excuses for running poorly–with the goal of picking profitable winners in the future. So here it goes . . . the Redboard, issue nine:
Gulfstream Park, Sunday, December 2, 2018
The results for Steam‘s top-pick selections were as follows: three wins and one second on the 10-race program for a 30 percent win clip and in-the-money ratio of 40 percent. Return on investment (ROI*) was +80%, or a flat-bet profit of $1.60 cents for each two dollars wagered on its top picks on the card.
RACE 1: $50,000 starter allowance for three-year-olds and up. 8 furlongs on a FIRM turf course. Weather CLEAR, 84 degrees.
Top selection Discovered (2-1) broke alertly, comfortably stalked an honest early pace (:23 3/5, :47 2/5, 1:11 flat) carved out by Seven Gems (5-1) in the two-path, was roused by jockey Julien Leparoux inside the three-furlong marker, was then forced to check sharply just past the quarter-pole as Lemonist (5-2) and Hey Big Guy (6-1) swept past him, and he flattened out in the stretch drive to finish a disappointing eighth-of-nine, beaten five lengths for all the money. The winner–Lemonist–stalked the pace in the vanguard and kicked clear in the lane, covering the flat mile trip on firm going in 1:35 1/5. Caloric (55-1) hopped at the start, Gio Dude (43-1) was crowded and bumped at the start, and Kulin Rock (7-2) was knocked off stride after bumping with Seattle Treasure (21-1) shortly after the break.
RACE 2: Maiden claiming $16,000 for two-year-olds. 6 furlongs on a FAST track.
Vinnie Van Go (5-1)–Steam’s top pick— pressed a quick opening quarter-mile set by Field Officer (22-1), collared that rival at the three eighths-pole, edged clear at the five-sixteenths marker and held even money favorite Guerrero (1-1) at bay under steady urging to win by two and a quarter lengths, covering six-panels on a “fast” strip in 1:12 4/5, Zalza (2-1) was another six and a half lengths back in third. Iron Flash (88-1) and Golden Charlie (28-1) broke slowly.
RACE 3: Claiming $16,000 for three-year-olds and upward which have never won two races. About 7.5 furlongs on a FIRM turf course.
The top selection, Bound Bi Luck (23-1), bumped with Long Night (51-1) shortly after the start, was reserved off the pace while saving ground on the hedge, swung into the four path just before the three sixteenths-pole, and finished with interest while wide without threatening eventual winner Balistico (23-1), who parlayed a front-running, stalking trip into a three-quarter length victory, covering the “about” seven and a half-furlong distance in 1:28 flat. Early pace setter, Andronikos (6-1), hung on for second and Blasphemy (6-1), who overcame a tardy start, was a length back in third. CLAIMS: Ballistico for $16,000 by trainer Sarah Nagle for Big Lick Farm and Barbarossa for $16,0000 by trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. for Frank C. Calabrese.
RACE 4: $60,000 maiden special weight for two-year-olds. 7 furlongs on a FAST track.
Top pick and “Play of the Day” Archidust (9-5) stalked first-time starter Golden Idol (10-1) in the three-path after an opening quarter-mile in :23 flat and a half-mile in :46 3/5, engaged that rival and Cold Warrior (10-1) while three-deep at the half mile-pole, edged clear at the three sixteenths-pole while drifting out slightly, and finished resolutely to win by five and a quarter lengths under jockey Edgard Zayas, stepping off the seven-furlongs in 1:25 4/5. Golden Idol held on for third and the first-time starter Cobble Hill (3-2), a half-brother to G1 stakes winner Marley’s Freedom, was half-length back in third
RACE 5: Maiden claiming $20,000 for two-year-olds. 8 furlongs on a FIRM turf course.
Channeledbythewind (2-1), Steam‘s top pick, tracked the freewheeling front-runner Revolutionary Road (13-1) and the pressing Majestic Hero (3-1) while saving ground on the hedge under jockey Paco Lopez, took over second at the five sixteenths-pole, was asked the proverbial question by Lopez at the quarter-pole, but had no answer and was bankrupt in the lane, finishing seventh-of-12, beaten 15 lengths for all the money. The winner, Crazy Magic (9-1) rallied stoutly from off-the-pace into moderate fractions (:23 3/5, :47 3/5, 1:11 4/5, and 1:24 1/5), and won impressively going away by four and half-lengths on the wire. Longshot Revolutionary Road held on for second, and Just Kitten You (2-1) was two and a half-lengths back in third. It’s worth noting that Bold Paynter (23-1), making his turf debut, was pinched back badly at the start between Restart (11-1) and Vijay (38-1), yet finished well while five-wide to be fourth, beaten six and three quarter-lengths for the win. CLAIMS: Channeledbythewind for $20,000 by trainer David Kassen for Hickory Woods Farm.
RACE 6: $62,500 optional claiming, “two other than” allowance for three-year-olds and upward. 6 furlongs on a FAST track.
Top selection Musical Heart (7-1) used a quick early pace (:22 1/5, :45 2/5), which unfolded as a result of a protracted speed duel between Field Trip (2-1) and Commute (4-5), to his advantage, as the chestnut son of Maclean’s Music settled contently off-the-pace, eased into contention while six-wide at the quarter-pole, collared Field Trip at the eighth-pole, and inched clear in the final sixteenth of a mile to win by a gritty three-parts of a length over a determined Field Trip. Focus On Me (16-1) was another two and three quarter-lengths back in third. Musical Heart covered the six-furlong journey in 1:11 3/5.
RACE 7: Maiden claiming $16,000 for two-year-old fillies. 6 furlongs on a FAST track.
First-time starter and top pick Thank You Note (1-1) went off at even money on debut for trainer Todd Fletcher and jockey Luis Saez, was pushed in slightly after the start by Do What It Take (10-1) settled in mid-pack while three-wide and had no kick in stretch, finishing sixth-of-11, beaten 11 lengths for all the marbles. The winner, Paisley Princess (10-1) was forwardly placed from the outset….Lilroundtop (66-1) bumped with Caspian Tale (71-1) at the start and dropped far back, and Miss Heart (50-1) hit left side of the gate at the start, yet rallied to finish third-of-12, beaten three and three quarter-lengths for the win. CLAIMS: Thank You Note for $16,000 by trainer Jane Cibelli for Miami Shores Racing, LLC.
RACE 8: $16,000 claiming for fillies and mares three-years-old and upward. About 7.5 furlongs on a FIRM turf course.
The top selection, Scatnap (3-1), was content to settle off-the-pace early, rallied on the far turn, was fanned into the five-path entering the stretch, and finished well without seriously threatening the winner, Nikki’s Cause (7-2), who rated comfortably in mid-pack, rallied in the lane splitting Frozen Hannah (9-1) and Reagan’s Odyssey (4-1) just before the sixteenth-pole, and drew clear to win by three-quarters of a length over Frozen Hannah on the wire. Regan’s Odyssey held on for third, a head in front of Scatnap, who was fourth-of-12, beaten just two lengths for all the marbles. CLAIMS: Nikki’s Cause for $16,000 by trainer Leon Minot for Robert Slack, and Scatnap for $16,000 by trainer Robert Falcone, Jr. for Drawing Away Stable.
RACE 9: $6,500 claiming for three-year-olds and upward. 6 furlongs on a FAST track.
Top pick Be a Hero (2-1), who went off favored, stalked early pace setter First Goal (16-1) in the third flight while three-wide, was ridden along at the quarter-pole under right-handed urging by jockey Isaac Castillo, grinded away in the stretch drive while in the three path, and finished second, beaten a length and three quarters by Dash of Dazzle (3-1), who settled in mid-pack, used quick early splits of :22 flat and :45 1/5 to his advantage, and drew clear in the lane. Pace-setting First Goal stayed on well to be third-of-11, beaten two and a quarter lengths for the win. Francesco Appeal (9-2) tossed his head just prior to the start and lunged in the air when the gates opened, and Shackleford’s Storm (35-1) lunged at the start. CLAIMS: Dash of Dazzle for $6,250 by trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. for Frank C. Calabrese.
RACE 10: $35,000 optional claiming, “a other than” allowance for three-year-olds and upward. 9 furlongs on a FIRM turf course.
Steam‘s top selection in Sunday’s nightcap, Art Collection (6-1), was unhurried early in ninth, was allowed to settle far off a slow pace (:25 flat, :48 4/5, 1:12 1/5, and 1:36 3/5), and had no late kick in the stretch drive, finishing ninth-of-12, eight and three quarter-lengths behind the winner, Bern’ James Bern, who rated off-the-pace while saving ground, moved into contention turning for home, dove to the inside in the final eighth of a mile and got up in the shadow of the wire while scraping paint, besting The Green Mo’ster (11-1) by a determined head. Second Mate (5-2) was another length and a quarter back in third. CLAIMS: Second Mate for $35,000 by trainer Jorge Abreu for Michael Dubb, Monomoy Stables, LLC, and Bethlehem Stables, LLC.
Jockey Tyler Gaffalione had a hat trick on Sunday’s program, and Tony Maragh and Edgard Zayas had a pair of winners apiece . . . Horses to watch down the line include Blasphemy, who broke slow but finished well in the third race, Bold Painter, who was pinched back badly at the break and rallied to be fourth, and Miss Heart, who broke flat-footed at nearly 51-1 but rallied to finish third in the seventh race, beaten just four and three quarter-lengths for the victory . . . There is a $45,040 carryover in the 20-cent Rainbow 6 Jackpot, and a $2,167 carryover in the $1 Super Hi-5 on the Wednesday, December 5 program.
*Return on investment (ROI) is calculated by dividing the net profit by the total amount invested.